As a common man sees....

Hari Om. Namaste.

Here is my understanding of what would happen Indian political scene: The current govt is certainly climbing down in its popularity chart.

In such a case following may happen:

1. The govt's popularity is going down, but the govt. is safe because of the numbers. So, it will last till end of the term= 3 more years to go!

2. I see a certain vacuum when it comes alternate options. The opposition has not positioned itself as a strong alternate to the current govt.

3. In such a case, there is still a possibility that govt. may be able to climb up the popularity curve and come back as an "average" govt by end of its term - if not as a good or a bad govt.

4. Govt. impression for the next election will mainly drive down by how it performs in the last 12-18 months. By the time the elections come, people may forget the current "major" crisis because they all have short-memory.

5. If we visit the numbers from the last general election v/s 2005 elections: UPA was up by 80 seats - taking seats more from CPI/M and then BJP. CPI/M count came down by around 40 seats. NDA was down by 17 seats. If we see the current scenario at state-level: CPI/M continues to perform bad in WB and Kerala, adding only more numbers to UPA and its allies! Congress-led govt in Kerala has a good CM as its leader. WB also may put up a good performance in the next few years.

So, th minor wins for NDA in other states (like, Bihar) would get balanced by its loss in some other states (like, Orissa). AIADMK in TN will not be of much help to NDA, because the Amma will side with whoever wins at the center.

So, I am not very sure if things are going to change much in the next general elections. As a normal citizen of India, I want to see a change in govt. But I do not see a strong alternative.

Is it possibly because L K Advani does not look like a strong leader? He may be a good person who has taken up good fight in early days. But, what role can he ply in the current scene now?

Is it time BJP projects Modi or a younger force as the next leader? In addition, BJP has got in good number of MPs from Karnataka. If BJP continues to show its corrupt-face in this state, I am not sure about its performance in the next elections?

So, do I have options left?